ETH in Danger Zone, H&S and Triangle, Part 3

已更新

Now we have a daily close below the neckline, but still no volume on the drop though. So it is not meaningful at this moment. Still not strange, because we could still see a pullback and THEN make the real drop. But as long as we don't see high volume, it usually means something else is going on and that we could see a counter move at some point. Because the movement from the 14th, could also be a wedge. This wedge will become more likely if we see more slow movement the coming days. You can see the possible wedge on the left.

Since we had support from that blue line and we had rejection today as well, we can use this level as an important reference point. Above this level, we could see it's neutral again (maybe slightly in favor of the bulls). Below that level, bears are in favor

Previous analysis:

ETH in Danger Zone, H&S and Triangle, Part 3

註釋

For the ones who remember this from a few weeks ago, the manipulation on ETH. This is a follow up on that.

註釋

There was no buying power at all today for ETH, it simply just kept on dropping like there are no bulls around for ETH. The possible wedge i suggest on the daily chart did not even get close, because it simply kept on dropping, even though Bitcoin did not make a real big drop. Based on the failed wedge, we can assume that triangle is in play which has a target around the yellow circle. So normally we should see still that target getting reached the coming days.

The H&S i showed a week ago is also in play now, suggesting an even bigger drop the coming weeks. However, Bitcoin is still above the important support zone around 3200/3300. So if that one hold for BTC and we see another solid move up, it could be it's over already. But based on the weakness of the whole market (with the exception of Bitcoin), objectively the chances down are higher.

註釋

On the left we can see a small inverse H&S in the making, based on the weakness of the drop AND the small bounce, this H&S is likely to fail. If that happens, there is a chance for a bigger inverse H&S to play out. With the current one becoming the left shoulder.

If this small one does play out, we need to see a small squeeze happen towards the target. Any move up that goes in slow motion, is very likely to fail as well eventually without reaching the target.

註釋

So the small inverse did play out and it's target has been reached already as well. Now anything can happen at this point. If we stay above the green we could see another move up. If we break it and see the whole market getting weaker again, the ideal play would be that big inverse on the right. Reaching the target of the triangle (yellow circle) and then make a big bounce up to start the inverse H&S. Only this scenario could get the market to turn bullish again.

Of course Bitcoin also needs to hold it's 3300ish zone.