ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: More Selling Momentum.

2017年9月3日

ETHUSD Update: Price retraces off of the 326 support up to the new 370 resistance level only to turn back and revisit 326. Great day trading price action, but not very appealing if you are considering longer time horizon strategies like swing trading. This bearish momentum points to the 296 level as the next support to test.

I mentioned the 326 to 305 zone that price retraced nicely off of, and ran almost 50 points within hours. If you are day trading this market which I am not, there is a lot of opportunity in movements like that, but if you are trying to buy into this and do not plan to take profit within the day trading time frame, then you need to be prepared for some pain.

And here is why: Tonight is the close of the current weekly candle. It has a long wick on top, and this is known as a Shooting Star which is a bearish reversal pattern. It is especially bearish in this context since it carries the weight of the weekly time frame and is appearing near a major resistance area. Once the low of this candle is taken out, bearish moment is more likely to follow and it can persist for at least a week.

This does not mean this market is in a bearish trend. Trend and momentum are two different things. It means that the current retrace has more room to test lower levels. If I am going to buy into a reversal pattern, I prefer to buy when the bearish momentum is more than likely running out of steam. In order for me to consider this market bearish on the big picture, 208 would have to be taken out and we are no where near that.

So in this scenario, I am waiting to see if this market can test the 296 support which is the .382 of the major bullish structure. Even though a double bottom reversal may be forming at the 326 level, the weekly Shooting Star carries more weight. Also any bullish retrace from here will now have to contend with the newly formed 368 to 380 resistance zone which is related to the .618 of the recent bear swing. This zone is a good reference area for short term targets.

Keep in mind, the way I am evaluating this market and choosing to trade it is not the only way. Some traders prefer to start buying small amounts early and build a core position to insure that they do not miss the next bullish move. There is nothing wrong with this as long as you know how to manage risk and not get too big too fast. If you have limited experience, this is not a good idea because inappropriate sizing will most likely force you out at the bottom.

In summary, buying into a pullback too early is common and I always look for signs that indicate the potential of the retrace. This retrace still has bearish potential as highlighted by the Shooting Star formation that will be official at the close of the weekly candle. With this perspective I look to the 296 level as offering a more attractive area to start buying back into this overall bullish market. IF 296 is reached, I will be looking for reversal patterns, if instead it is broken, I will reevaluate the price action and adjust from there.

Questions and comments welcome.