ETH Daily: Contracting Triangle Nearing Completion – Downside Br

Pattern Overview

• Textbook five-wave contracting triangle (A-B-C-D-E) fully formed
  
• Price compressed between converging trendlines – coiled spring ready to release
  
• Volume steadily declining into apex – classic pre-breakout signature
  
• Multiple indicators point to downside resolution
  

Technical Analysis
Elliott Wave Structure

• Clean 3-3-3-3-3 corrective sequence confirmed
  
• All waves respect triangle rules: C < A, D < B, E < C
  
• Converging boundaries create pressure for explosive move
  

Timing Analysis (Neely Method)

• Triangles complete within 60-80% of A-to-apex timespan
  
• ETH now sits directly in this critical window
  
• Resolution expected within 4-6 weeks maximum
  

Price Projection Methods

• Largest Wave Rule: Thrust often equals biggest internal leg → Target: $1,350 then $900
  
• Minimum Line Rule: Must exceed lowest triangle point (~$880) for valid thrust
  
• Fibonacci Extension: 0.75-1.25x of C-D height → Extended targets: $750-$300
  

Key Levels & Targets

• Support Break: Pink trendline (see chart)
  
• Initial Target Zone: $1,200-$900
  
• Extended Targets: $600-$300 if momentum builds
  
• Invalidation: Close above upper resistance line
  

Trading Strategy

• Entry: Daily close below rising support line
  
• Target 1: $1,200-$900 (confluence zone)
  
• Target 2: $600-$300 (1.25 fib extension)
  
• Stop Loss: Re-entry into triangle after breakdown
  
• Risk Management: Small position size, use trailing stops, monitor ETF flows
  

Market Context

• Triangle maturity suggests imminent resolution
  
• Volume expansion will confirm breakout direction
  
• Watch for macro catalysts that could accelerate move
  
• ETF decisions and regulatory news remain wildcards
  

Action Plan

• Triangle has exhausted time – breakout window is NOW
  
• Technical evidence strongly favors downside
  
• Wait for clean break with volume confirmation
  
• Prepare for potential cascade to three-digit prices
  
• Stay disciplined – let the market prove the direction