Long setup - short term

2018年7月18日

ETHUSD Long setup - Short term

Welcome everyone, we have trade setup developing for ETHUSD, following pretty much the same path as Bitcoin (which we looked at yesterday, and our trade got activated tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Itet5YXq-Weekly-market-update-and-developing-swing-trade-long-setup/), only looking a bit weaker.

DAILY



We’re still working well within our downward channel. kind of bouncing around the median line. And perhaps this is is a tradable bounce to the upside, we’ll see in a moment on the 2HR timeframe.
We have to recognize, similar to bitcoin, that we are still in a downward trend, and in a bear market. So any bounce to the upside must be treated with caution, as we believe we still have some downwards action to come before the market reaches a bottom.
We can see ichimoku showing us a weak bullish tk cross beneath the kumo. and the kijun is pointing downwards. We will need this to point up to have signs of bullish momentum, and to do that the price needs to make a higher high, which we are waiting patiently for it to do..
Let’s have a look at the 2HR chart now

2HR


The correction from yesterdays up move is a bit more violent than bitcoins, but that is to be expected. For now no panic yet, we need to close convincingly above the breakout level (and break the upwards channel) before we can enter the breakout trade.

breakout level: 495
Invalidation: 400
First target: 564
Second target: 615
Maximum target: 666

Another option is to see where this retracement takes us, we\re seeing no strong reaction yet at the kijun, so perhaps it will find support somewhere between the .5 and .618 fib level. Where the price bounces depends on the strength of the last upmove, if it is strong the .382 level could very well hold. This is much seen in crypto, so let's see if price holds that level, or breaks through.

For now, again, we wait until price tells us where it wants to go, then we will join it.