alt season? market looks poised for something big

2021年12月20日

while bitcoin appears to be slowly consolidating within a massive range, ETH has finally lost support on its bull trendline (originating in 2020) and altcoins are ostensibly bleeding out. that's a turn-off for some. but for me, the altcoin market is looking exceptionally ripe. just zoom out and take a look at what's going on.

looking at the altcoin market cap as a whole, we have this glaringly obvious pattern that's almost identical to the one from last cycle:

is it a coincidence that so many altcoins are right around their respective bull trendlines? i think not. look at almost any altcoin chart on a high time-frame and you'll see what i'm talking about (ADA, LTC, ALGO, SOL, NANO, ETH, the list goes on...). here are a few examples to give you the picture:





but what if 69k BTC was the top and we are in a bear market? sure, it's possible. yeah, these trendlines might break and prices could go lower. but they could also go much higher. and in my experience, long-term trendlines are a high probability play. i also think there's a lot more evidence to suggest this bull run isn't finished, and the only evidence against it is a single chart pattern (double-top) coupled with fear. i'll buy the fear.

2021年12月20日

註釋

and how could i forget? ETH's breakout against BTC is further evidence: