ETHUSD Levels And Perspective: 160 Major Trend Support.

2017年7月16日

ETHUSD Update: Yes it looks ugly, but it still has not broken the 160 major trend support. Bearish momentum is persistent and has taken this market back into the 160s. In light of the bigger picture, the bullish trend is still intact and 160 is the .382 of that trend. If price trades below 160 for more than a few hourly bars, I will adjust my major trend expectation from bullish to neutral which will shape how I manage longer time horizon trades in this market.

The two pivot levels that will signal a return of bullish momentum if broken are the 177 which is the .382 of the most recent bearish swing, and 187 which is the .382 of the broader bearish swing. For those of you who have been following my reports, those levels are similar to the 190 to 180 support area where I was waiting for bullish reversals. This support area has now become a resistance (inversion) and needs to be cleared in order to signal the bears are losing control. UNLESS that happens, price is more likely to continue lower.

Keep in mind there is a lot of hype swirling around these markets because of the "User Activated Soft Fork" and any other little piece of information is going to be met with all kinds of overreaction. It is tempting to buy into these cheap prices, but the risk is not worth it in my opinion. One great lesson I have learned over the years is that it's okay to buy higher as long as there are signs of buyers who can buy it from you as opposed to buying a low and hoping it turns around soon. Hope is a bad thing when it comes to trading and I have bottom and top fished enough to know it is not profitable in the long run.

In summary, weakness continues but be very aware of the 160 support area. Price is likely to show signs of reversal here, but that can take days. And in order for price to signal renewed buying, especially in the bigger picture, 187 to 190 ultimately needs to be compromised. Unless that scenario unfolds, I am steering clear of the this market, especially with UASF around the corner. If 160 breaks, that will indicate a change within the major bullish trend structure which will call for adjusted trade expectations if and when long signals do appear.

Comments questions welcome.