Ethereum is Close to Losing the Uptrend – My Trading Plan
TLDR:
• Currently ETH is sitting at support. I think it is weak, but I don’t short support. For all I
know, it can turn around and resume being bullish.
• If ETH breaks below the trendline and tests it as resistance I will short.
• If ETH will break below the trendline without a retest, I will wait for a break below the
horizontal support at 1787 USDT.
• Invalidation: Daily close above the trendline.
• Note: ETH has two demand zones below the horizontal support that may prevent it from
going down too much. Or, even provide a long entry.
The Weaknesses I see in ETH:
1. Unlike bitcoin, ETH did not make a higher high.
2. although ETH Technically made a HL on June 15th, it closed two daily candles below the
upward sloping trendline.
3. in percentage terms, ETH went up by 24.74% in this leg up. The lowest since November of
2022.
4. ETH may be the queen of altcoins but, it is still an altcoin. ETH can go down in price even if
Bitcoin resumes the uptrend.
5. If Bitcoin keeps dumping, IMO ETH will lose the trendline and, possibly the horizontal support
at 1787 USDT.
The Implications of Losing the trendline:
• Usually when an altcoin losses its upward sloping trendline it goes into a deep correction.
Examples:
• MATIC: On April 19th, 2023, Matic lost the upward sloping trendline. On May 8th,
2023, MATIC lost the horizontal support level. It is in a downtrend ever since it lost the
trendline.
• ADA: On May 19th ADA lost its upward sloping trendline. On May 28th, 2023, ADA
tested the trendline for resistance. On June 5th, ADA lost the horizontal support line. ADA
is in a downtrend ever since.
Summary:
• A diagonal trendline is comprised of two axis’s, time, and price. A loss of a diagonal
trendline may be a sign of long-term price decline. I think it is foolish to ignore such a
warning sign.
Trading Plan:
1. If ETH losses the trendline and tests it as resistance. I will short the break below the trendline
with a stoploss above the trendline (daily close). I will share the specifics of such a trade if
and when it will become relevant.
2. If ETH losses the trendline without a retest, I will short a breakdown from the horizontal
support line at 1787 USDT. I will share the specifics of the trade if and when it will become
relevant.
Invalidation:
• Daily close above the upward sloping trendline.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
• Currently ETH is sitting at support. I think it is weak, but I don’t short support. For all I
know, it can turn around and resume being bullish.
• If ETH breaks below the trendline and tests it as resistance I will short.
• If ETH will break below the trendline without a retest, I will wait for a break below the
horizontal support at 1787 USDT.
• Invalidation: Daily close above the trendline.
• Note: ETH has two demand zones below the horizontal support that may prevent it from
going down too much. Or, even provide a long entry.
The Weaknesses I see in ETH:
1. Unlike bitcoin, ETH did not make a higher high.
2. although ETH Technically made a HL on June 15th, it closed two daily candles below the
upward sloping trendline.
3. in percentage terms, ETH went up by 24.74% in this leg up. The lowest since November of
2022.
4. ETH may be the queen of altcoins but, it is still an altcoin. ETH can go down in price even if
Bitcoin resumes the uptrend.
5. If Bitcoin keeps dumping, IMO ETH will lose the trendline and, possibly the horizontal support
at 1787 USDT.
The Implications of Losing the trendline:
• Usually when an altcoin losses its upward sloping trendline it goes into a deep correction.
Examples:
• MATIC: On April 19th, 2023, Matic lost the upward sloping trendline. On May 8th,
2023, MATIC lost the horizontal support level. It is in a downtrend ever since it lost the
trendline.
• ADA: On May 19th ADA lost its upward sloping trendline. On May 28th, 2023, ADA
tested the trendline for resistance. On June 5th, ADA lost the horizontal support line. ADA
is in a downtrend ever since.
Summary:
• A diagonal trendline is comprised of two axis’s, time, and price. A loss of a diagonal
trendline may be a sign of long-term price decline. I think it is foolish to ignore such a
warning sign.
Trading Plan:
1. If ETH losses the trendline and tests it as resistance. I will short the break below the trendline
with a stoploss above the trendline (daily close). I will share the specifics of such a trade if
and when it will become relevant.
2. If ETH losses the trendline without a retest, I will short a breakdown from the horizontal
support line at 1787 USDT. I will share the specifics of the trade if and when it will become
relevant.
Invalidation:
• Daily close above the upward sloping trendline.
NFA.
What do you think? Please share in the comments.
Best Wishes.
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