I expect at least a breakthrough to relieve liquidity, where a fake will form afterwards, and possibly, if there is still a black swan, it will happen immediately after this breakthrough.
Let's remember the beginning of the previous bull run, a similar situation, the market recovered well, showing Bitcoin's growth up to 14k, but then we had that very "black swan" event, where we plummeted rapidly and steeply due to COVID. After that, there was a V-shaped reversal and a new bull phase.
This is a quite probable global scenario.