EURAUD the next 1000 pip move?
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While rare trades, we are looking to start betting with heavier size on this EURAUD long as a position trade. We will scale very carefully as this is just a potential emerging theme. Recently, the EURGBP moved 1000 pips off the low and we are starting to wonder if the macro-economic themes are lining up to create an environment where the EURAUD will do the same? As with most position trades, we have to consider the cost of carry, and so playing this long term needs to be treated with care. However, things could get volatile very quickly if we see a larger commodity sell off in the metals markets, or alternatively the risk indicies which we do think is possible. In this case, most likely they will also sell the Aussie aggressively, and as the country is flat on rat hikes and struggles economically, we think this pair fundamentally looks good for the longer term. Technically speaking, the D100 and W20 EMAs are providing stiff resistance at about 1.5150 so if that levels clears the only EMA on the monthly basis that would be up next is the 200 and it sits at around 1.5400. There's a lot of space there to the upside... This is just examining the moving averages, there are plenty of other techncals that support this theme, but those are the ones that jump out at us the most.
While rare trades, we are looking to start betting with heavier size on this EURAUD long as a position trade. We will scale very carefully as this is just a potential emerging theme. Recently, the EURGBP moved 1000 pips off the low and we are starting to wonder if the macro-economic themes are lining up to create an environment where the EURAUD will do the same? As with most position trades, we have to consider the cost of carry, and so playing this long term needs to be treated with care. However, things could get volatile very quickly if we see a larger commodity sell off in the metals markets, or alternatively the risk indicies which we do think is possible. In this case, most likely they will also sell the Aussie aggressively, and as the country is flat on rat hikes and struggles economically, we think this pair fundamentally looks good for the longer term. Technically speaking, the D100 and W20 EMAs are providing stiff resistance at about 1.5150 so if that levels clears the only EMA on the monthly basis that would be up next is the 200 and it sits at around 1.5400. There's a lot of space there to the upside... This is just examining the moving averages, there are plenty of other techncals that support this theme, but those are the ones that jump out at us the most.
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