EUR/CAD ongoing analysis, bearish thesis

2022年9月14日

EUR/CAD, to me, is fundamentally bearish as well as technically and this video explains the bias from mostly a technical perspective. I will update the fundamentals in the updates below.

Technically, waiting for another 15 min break of 1.3135 on a closing basis to trigger shorts into the market and will then assess things from there.

We can approach this from a swing trading basis as well as a scalping basis. Updates will follow in due course.

2022年9月14日

註釋

I am keeping an eye on oil. Supply risks our in favour of long CAD, but this technical scenario, not so much! The M-formation's neckline around $89 is crucial and we want the bull to break higher or we will face headwinds as WTI falls towards a breakout structure near $85.

2022年9月14日

註釋

Here is the 4-hour scenario. We want 89.90 to break or 87.61 to hold. A break below 86.63 will open a risk of below 85 and tests of all of these support levels will hurt CAD long positions.

2022年9月14日

註釋

Meanwhile, for short term scalping eurcad, so far the market is moving in our favour

2022年9月14日

註釋

Looking at the DXY, H4 which is the best place to pinpoint the structure at the moment, we need this M-formation to play out to the upside for a scalp short in EUR/CAD. So far so good with eyes on the median 109.80 target level - This will weigh on the euro, and the CAD, but if the thesis is correct, CAD should outperform the euro fundamentally in an inflationary environment.

2022年9月14日

註釋

This shows the relationship between eurcad and commodities during the pandemic era and subsequent rising inflation....