EURCHF Analysis – “Euro Inches Higher, But Safe-Haven CHF Lurks

6月20日

EURCHF is breaking out from a symmetrical triangle, indicating potential bullish momentum.

Key resistances to watch:

0.9445 – local swing high

0.9498 – potential measured target from the triangle breakout

Entry on retest of the triangle may offer a favorable risk-reward opportunity.

However, upside could be capped if CHF regains strength.

Structure Bias: Bullish breakout, confirmation needed with a clean retest and sustained move above 0.9440

📊 Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
🧩 Key Fundamentals Driving EURCHF
EUR Side (Neutral to Slightly Bearish):

ECB remains cautious: June’s Economic Bulletin showed soft patches in core inflation and weak consumer activity.

German & French PMIs are mixed; services weaker than expected.

Political uncertainty (France snap elections) weighs on EUR sentiment in the medium term.

CHF Side (Fundamentally Stronger):

SNB is cautious but hawkish: Monetary policy assessment showed a steady hand, maintaining rates with no clear signal of easing.

Safe-haven flows persist due to:

Middle East risk (Israel–Iran escalation)

Russia–Ukraine tensions

Weak equity sentiment

CHF remains supported on global risk aversion, even with SNB standing pat.

⚠️ Risks That May Reverse or Accelerate Trend
Breakout fails to hold → Bearish fakeout leads to drop toward 0.9290 again

Renewed CHF strength from geopolitical shocks

Eurozone political turbulence (especially France & ECB doves)

🗓️ Important News to Watch
🇨🇭 Swiss CPI, SNB statements

🇪🇺 Eurozone PMI Flash (June 21), CPI (June 28), and political updates

Global market risk sentiment (VIX, bonds, oil, Iran/Israel news)

🏁 Which Asset Might Lead the Broader Move?
EURCHF is lagging behind EURUSD and USDCHF, but provides clean geopolitical risk signals. If markets stabilize, this pair has upside potential. However, if fear returns, CHF may quickly regain control, trapping long trades.

6月23日

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❌ Trade Conditions Not Met:
No clean breakout retest

Price failed to hold above trendline

Bearish rejection candle broke triangle base, invalidating the structure