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EURJPY weekly forecast Geopolitical risks and technical overview

FX:EURJPY   歐元 / 日圓
Looking Back on the chart, there have been a long downtrend on the 4 hour chart.
The price is consolidating through a rising wedge , and the third wave have been completed.

i see the price go down to 132.015 before further upside to the fifth and ending wave.

a long trade can be taken after the price have tested the support line in the rising wedge .
this is a risky position as the rising wedge can already break wave (iv)
The rising wedge can also be counted as a a,b,c correction after a 5 wave down trend from previously high.

If the price breaks the (iv) wave, we could see the price decline to, 130.616, 130.379 and 129.669

If not, the price could easily complete wave (v) to complet the sequences.
Wave (v) is 1.618 on fibonacci drawn from 0 to (i)
while the target if wave (v) is completed and the price breaks the rising wedge , is 0.886 on fibonacci (131.641)
where 130.375 is 0.5 on fibonacci. if the price holdt above this level after a breakout, the downtrend will be invalidated and further upside is expected.

Also keep in mind that there is a lot of important events the next 2 weeks. with Interest rate decision to be made.
My consensus is that the interest rate will be on the same level 0% the price will decline on the announcement. while ECB probably will talk about ending the quantitative easing programs across Europe, that will drive the currency price higher.

__________

We have for a long trade.

1. Macroeconomic data the next 2 weeks.
2. Completing wave (iv)
3. testing the supportline in the rising wedge .
4. trade-war fear easing.
5. Long term up trend ( on daily chart , from last year)
_____

For a Short trade.

1. Bearish divergence (marked with yellow rings)
2. Break of the rising wedge .
3. entry point at 1.618 fibonacci.
4. completing wave (iv) and (v)
5. Macroeconomic data with interest rate decision and decision on ending quantitative easing program.
6. Geopolitical risks between US, Russia, Syria, and Europe. ( deportation of diplomats, and war fears )
7. Short term downtrend (on 4 hour chart from start of 2018)








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