EUR/USD — Buy On Weakness Favored

2019年1月15日

I remain positive on the outlook for the Euro, if only based on the follow through USD weakness one can expect after the resolution lower in the DXY. I was filled long ahead of the 1.15 last week with a stop below the breakout candle from last Wednesday. Remember, even of an increase in the VIX, vol-targeting funds and the accumulation of the EUR-denominated carry trade into US assets may start to feel the pain and further adjustment may be seen, leading to EUR strength. From a structural standpoint, the Euro remains on a second leg up, with the impulsivity of the range breakout exceeding in momentum and magnitude the first upleg instance in mid-Dec. This is a market that remains a buy on weakness judging by the macro and micro divergence on the German-US yield spread. I am not troubled by the vol via the Brexit vote, as the majority of the moves should be GBP-centric according to the implied vol readings I am getting out of the options market.