Markets unfazed by trade deal, focus shifts to data

2020年1月16日

As investors have already priced in a phase-one deal between the US and China before the event, the ceremony itself caused only a short-lived positive reaction across the markets. So, following a brief rally, risky assets mostly retreated while Asian stocks saw a muted and mixed reaction early on Thursday. Currencies were even more apathetic to the event.

Now, market participants will likely shift focus to the upcoming economic data. The US retail sales will be the key release of the day, with signs of a weak consumer demand could add to the negative pressure surrounding the greenback after mixed inflation data revealed earlier in the week. Should retail sales growth comes lower than 0.3%, the report would be dollar-negative. Also, investors will assess imports and exports data out of the United States as well as business inventories.

As for the EURUSD pair, disappointing US data may send the prices above the 1.1160 area. In this case, the breakout will serve as a confirmation of a break above the 200-DMA, which now acts as the immediate support area. On the upside, the key nearest target comes at 1.12. Otherwise, the recent recovery, which still looks fragile, may fizzle easily.