the 1.05 handle looks interesting for longs...
Weekly gain/loss: + 68 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.0658
Weekly opening price: 1.0665
Weekly view: After coming within an inch of tagging the top edge of a support area seen at 1.0333-1.0502 two weeks back, last week’s flow extended to highs of 1.0689. Provided that the bulls continue to bid prices higher this week, the next upside target to have an eyeball on is the trendline resistance extended from the low 0.8231, followed closely by the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873 and resistance at 1.0819.
Daily view: Following Friday’s indecision candle, daily action initially looked poised to test the nearby resistance sitting at 1.0710, which, if you look back in history, you’ll notice that this number capped downside (as a support) beautifully at the beginning of the year. Still, given today’s rather vibrant opening, it looks like price may revisit the triple-bottom support formation at 1.0520, seen loitering just ahead of a Quasimodo support coming in at 1.0494.
H4 view: This morning’s action, as you can see, saw a wave of sellers enter the market from within the H4 resistance area at 1.0646-1.0689, as exit polls currently show Italy’s PM Renzi likely to lose in today’s referendum. This somewhat energetic start to a normally lethargic Monday has brought the H4 opening candle below both the 1.06 handle and December’s opening level at 1.0590, and is now currently seen within shouting distance of testing the double-bottom support at 1.0568.
Direction for the week: At the time of writing, this is difficult to foresee. Overall, the trend is pointing south so this will place additional pressure on the current weekly support area and the above noted daily supports. An early telltale sign that the bears are gaining further traction would be a daily close below the daily supports mentioned above. This could eventually portend to a break of the weekly support area.
Direction for today: In light of today’s opening candle, direction seems quite clear for the time being, and in light of the current exit polls further downside MIGHT be at hand. However, as we write, the only area of support we feel is noteworthy comes in at 1.05. This number molds beautifully with the daily Quasimodo support at 1.0494 and also, more importantly, the top edge of the weekly support area at 1.0502. Therefore, under usual trading conditions this level would be stable enough to permit a pending buy order at 1.0495 with a stop placed below the head of the current daily Quasimodo formation at 1.0459.
Our suggestions: We will not be taking any positions in the EUR/USD market today due to current volatility. However, for those who wish to trade, do keep an eye on the above noted 1.05 handle. The (technical) confluence surrounding this barrier is appealing.
Data points to consider: Eurogroup meetings (All day). FOMC member Dudley speaks at 1.30pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm, FOMC member Bullard speaks at 7.05pm GMT.
Weekly closing price: 1.0658
Weekly opening price: 1.0665
Weekly view: After coming within an inch of tagging the top edge of a support area seen at 1.0333-1.0502 two weeks back, last week’s flow extended to highs of 1.0689. Provided that the bulls continue to bid prices higher this week, the next upside target to have an eyeball on is the trendline resistance extended from the low 0.8231, followed closely by the 2016 yearly opening level at 1.0873 and resistance at 1.0819.
Daily view: Following Friday’s indecision candle, daily action initially looked poised to test the nearby resistance sitting at 1.0710, which, if you look back in history, you’ll notice that this number capped downside (as a support) beautifully at the beginning of the year. Still, given today’s rather vibrant opening, it looks like price may revisit the triple-bottom support formation at 1.0520, seen loitering just ahead of a Quasimodo support coming in at 1.0494.
H4 view: This morning’s action, as you can see, saw a wave of sellers enter the market from within the H4 resistance area at 1.0646-1.0689, as exit polls currently show Italy’s PM Renzi likely to lose in today’s referendum. This somewhat energetic start to a normally lethargic Monday has brought the H4 opening candle below both the 1.06 handle and December’s opening level at 1.0590, and is now currently seen within shouting distance of testing the double-bottom support at 1.0568.
Direction for the week: At the time of writing, this is difficult to foresee. Overall, the trend is pointing south so this will place additional pressure on the current weekly support area and the above noted daily supports. An early telltale sign that the bears are gaining further traction would be a daily close below the daily supports mentioned above. This could eventually portend to a break of the weekly support area.
Direction for today: In light of today’s opening candle, direction seems quite clear for the time being, and in light of the current exit polls further downside MIGHT be at hand. However, as we write, the only area of support we feel is noteworthy comes in at 1.05. This number molds beautifully with the daily Quasimodo support at 1.0494 and also, more importantly, the top edge of the weekly support area at 1.0502. Therefore, under usual trading conditions this level would be stable enough to permit a pending buy order at 1.0495 with a stop placed below the head of the current daily Quasimodo formation at 1.0459.
Our suggestions: We will not be taking any positions in the EUR/USD market today due to current volatility. However, for those who wish to trade, do keep an eye on the above noted 1.05 handle. The (technical) confluence surrounding this barrier is appealing.
Data points to consider: Eurogroup meetings (All day). FOMC member Dudley speaks at 1.30pm, ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 3pm, FOMC member Bullard speaks at 7.05pm GMT.
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