歐元 / 美元看空
Well done to those who faded 1.13 - beautiful FO setup!
EUR/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422, though mid-month ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, bid/offers appear relatively even right now and the aforesaid Fib targets have yet to be met.
H4 timeframe:
Wednesday, amidst a broad dollar sell-off, had EUR/USD chalk up a strong H4 bullish close. An extension to the upside amid Asian trading and the early hours of Europe Thursday brought channel resistance (1.1422) into view. From here, optimistic US non-farm payrolls data provided fresh USD impetus, weighing on EUR/USD upside into the closing stages of the session.
Demand from 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply) may re-enter the scene today.
H1 timeframe:
The rally-base-drop supply viewed at 1.1288/1.1278 (boasting strong downside momentum out of its base) had its upper edge taken Thursday, in favour of the 1.13 level. Buyers took a back seat from here, aided by upbeat US macroeconomic data.
The day wrapped under 1.1250 and the 100-period simple moving average, shining the headlights on demand at 1.1181/1.1202 (glued to the upper edge of H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158).
Structures of Interest:
Thursday’s analysis featured 1.13 as viable resistance, which, as you can see, served well.
Going forward, also highlighted in Thursday’s writing, monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 emphasises a bearish tone in this market, while the daily chart reminds traders there’s also scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.
Owing to the above, bearish strategies off either the 100-period simple moving average or the 1.1250 resistance on the H1 could be on the menu today towards H1 demand at 1.1181/1.1202.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422, though mid-month ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]).
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Brought forward from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (of legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, bid/offers appear relatively even right now and the aforesaid Fib targets have yet to be met.
H4 timeframe:
Wednesday, amidst a broad dollar sell-off, had EUR/USD chalk up a strong H4 bullish close. An extension to the upside amid Asian trading and the early hours of Europe Thursday brought channel resistance (1.1422) into view. From here, optimistic US non-farm payrolls data provided fresh USD impetus, weighing on EUR/USD upside into the closing stages of the session.
Demand from 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply) may re-enter the scene today.
H1 timeframe:
The rally-base-drop supply viewed at 1.1288/1.1278 (boasting strong downside momentum out of its base) had its upper edge taken Thursday, in favour of the 1.13 level. Buyers took a back seat from here, aided by upbeat US macroeconomic data.
The day wrapped under 1.1250 and the 100-period simple moving average, shining the headlights on demand at 1.1181/1.1202 (glued to the upper edge of H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158).
Structures of Interest:
Thursday’s analysis featured 1.13 as viable resistance, which, as you can see, served well.
Going forward, also highlighted in Thursday’s writing, monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 emphasises a bearish tone in this market, while the daily chart reminds traders there’s also scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106.
Owing to the above, bearish strategies off either the 100-period simple moving average or the 1.1250 resistance on the H1 could be on the menu today towards H1 demand at 1.1181/1.1202.
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