EURUSD SELL SETUP?

2016年12月4日

It seems to me that we have a very clear sell setup on this based on several key factors, not only technically but also fundamentally.

Technical:
We seem to be in the middle of wave 5 intermediate whilst hitting a very important trendline/channel, which seems to have been broken already on the daily and is currently in a retracement action. MACD suggests we are going to complete a wave 5 and MACD Crossover suggests we are continuing in a downtrend, based on the Daily chart.
Stochastic shows oversold position and RSI is although showing oversold, the structure to me suggests we will continue to see downtrend until at least the end of wave 5 intermediate.

Fundamental:
All indications here of a very fast move down, with the inclusion of the ITALY referendum results.
If the YES vote wins, we should see the euro drop slightly and then move up and stay within the channel.
However, if the NO vote wins, we should see a HUGE drop right down (in my opinion to TP#2 - possibly even lower) indicated on the chart.

My forecast is that the NO vote will win, thus dropping the price right down, due to the fact that a NO vote means basically 2 things:
(1) Beppo Grillo will be voted in most likely and Italy will remove the EURO money
(2) AND Italy will EXIT the EURO block.
What does this mean? EURO is kaput, and due to the domino effect, France is most sure to follow, thus plunging the euro even further down, probably a bigger drop than Brexit !
Get your popcorn out and watch what happens...

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Please do not trade this chart if you do not have your own strategy. Trade only with your own strategy.
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