EU to 1.0700 by end of 2018? Extended Bear Scenario for EURUSD

2018年5月18日

This is an update to my previously posted long term plan, linked below.

Currently the Dollar is ripper strong, and the Euro is really struggling.
The last bounce from a wave 3 completion was pretty weak, so I expect a wave 5 down soon.
I would expect some kind of an ABC retrace upon hitting next green zone (wave III)

1.1500 is my next target I guess.
1.1250 by end of Summer still seems plausible.
1.0700 gap close may well happen by end of 2018.

I will update and fine tune the target ranges as I see developments.

Here is the previous plan, which is still mostly in effect for me, but EU looks even more bear that I expected at that time:

2018年5月21日

註釋

Looks like next target will be easily achieved.
US might buy in the morning, but by mid week imo.

2018年5月29日

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Next target within spitting distance.
EU cutting through some solid support zones.
Next one below may or may not hold but should slow it down.

2018年5月29日

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Here we are, will bounce? even a dead cat?

2018年5月29日

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Seems to be taking a breather at least.
At a lousy 11.618? wow!

2018年5月29日

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First target for Wave III hit.


Close up.

Notice how it stopped BEFORE the round 1.15000.
Instead, it was a Fib Resonance (a 1.618 ) that acted.

Now is time to look for a bounce, to short again!
EU news is uncertain (Italy), and USD is very strong.
But expecting a USD correction, EU breather, then onward and downward.
Maybe a bounce to the zone above and then down again? will be watching.


OR maybe it just belows through 1.1500 and keeps dropping? Fine by me, many shorts are still open :)

2018年5月30日

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EU really struggling.
Keeps beating on support, like it wants to test 1.15000

2018年5月30日

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If 1.1500 breaks, nearest support is 50 pips below and not a strong one...

2018年5月30日

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2018年5月30日

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Got a little bounce as expected.
Not a strong looking bounce, but maybe a choppy incline to start wave IV?

2018年5月30日

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Pretty good bounce so far, with a clear impulse wave.
But I suspect might be short lived.
Some pretty strong resistance coming up just above.
Will definitely retrace a bit from there, question is whether it will turn back down

2018年5月30日

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Time to gauge the retrace as expected

2018年5月30日

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Maybe something like this?

2018年5月30日

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Ouch, that was a pretty hard wave A.
Not looking good

2018年5月30日

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Adjusting wave C target a little lower.
If that breaks, the 'retrace' might be start of 'return' to downtrend.

2018年5月30日

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wow, maybe EU will punch its way out after all.
Still a lot of resistance above, but has been hit a couple times now...

2018年5月30日

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EU continues to beat against resistance, really wants to break it.
That would be fine, as per my original plan a good bounce was expected.
But looking skiddish still, with a laborious wave 5 perhaps.

2018年5月30日

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EU bounce looking good.
Broke resistance, and looks like a classic wave 3=3.618 to wave 5=5.618 move.
Still a bear here, but this bounce was part of my plan, so as long as it keeps doing what I was hoping for, I am happy.

2018年5月30日

註釋

Pretty good bounce on EU, as expected.
We see a clear 5 wave impluse.
Interesting that it stopped at the Gap top, EXACTLY!
So it may well be time to resume down trend after gap confirmation.

.

But this retrace could go higher, perhaps something like this to test 1.1800

2018年5月31日

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Looks like we got the ABC as anticipated.
News out of Italy is whipsawing this, but notice the Fib zones are still in control.

2018年6月1日

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EU might end the week at 1.18, if NFP is weak or Italy news is good

2018年6月6日

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Approaching my possible wave IV target of around 1.18000


Close up, looks like target 1.18033 (give or take a 1/10 of pip) :)

2018年6月6日

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Still chugging along to my target, 1.18033, where my further shorts await.

2018年6月6日

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PING. There we are.
Hit the 4.618 of local fib, very close 3.618 of larger Fib.


I am thinking consolidation in this zone for a bit, then continue downtrend exactly per the original plan.

2018年6月7日

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The original wave IV top I had (in the main live chart) was 1.1815
That was to account for possible stop hunt above 1.1800
Asia already passed ast 1.1800 ever so slightly but no spike of stops.
And the EURO looks to have a pretty good head of steam.
ie: I am not so confident wave IV will end here, but watching with interest.

2018年6月7日

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EU spiked a little above my anticipated wave IV end.
But maybe that was the stop-sweep spike I was looking for.

2018年6月7日

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Interesting behavior after spike above resistance.
Obeying the fibs, but the drop is NOT looking powerful, so might be just profit taking before further rise. Watching closely.

2018年6月8日

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EU down move looks to be gaining momentum.
See chart for clues gathered from the same fib drawn in last pic.

2018年6月8日

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Yikes, blew right through the 5.618 and into my blew Fib zone.
Perhaps was a stop run before London Open, or maybe just a dead cat bounce right now?

2018年6月8日

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This ABC correction up for wave IV looks quite done me.
It reached a whole bunch of 618's, all extensions of pulses up.
You just cant walk past that many 618's without retreating some.

2018年6月8日

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I am thinking 1.1750 next

2018年6月8日

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am surprised by this 4.618 bounce, when the momentum said the 5.618 at 1.175, thinking it will still get there

2018年6月8日

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There is it, the 1.175 target and 5.618 Fib I was expecting

2018年6月8日

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Ruh Roh, if EU does not get back above 1.175 quickly, then 1.172 is in focus

2018年6月8日

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Interesting, the 7.618 extension bounced it up.
The bounce shows some strength as it came back to the 2.618 almost.
I am thinking maybe Monday it will test the 2.618.

2018年6月13日

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Original plan still on track.
It fell to where I expected, then bounce to where I expected.
Now it LOOKS to be turning back down with several bearish daily candles.
BUT, I would not be surprised to see an ABC wave shooting up to the Red Zone (1.1906 - 1.1933) before turning back down.


Big ECB news this week, so I think the big movement will wait until then.
But the in the meantime I will keep updating my scalps on ny other EU ideas.

2018年6月14日

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ECB decision taken as dovish by market.
Looks like next target is on the table now.

2018年6月22日

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Added to short position per this plan:

Stops jambed at break even on new shorts, hoping they survive long enough to take some profits and rest ride along.

2018年6月28日

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NEW Clue about EU future.
Notice the picture perfect .618 retrace/rejection.
That rejection was quite strong, so a .382 extension to 1.1375 is almost assured.
This is a LOT of support at 1.1500, but it was previously tested/weakened.
If 1.1500 breaks, the next STRONG support is 1.11000