Once again we have our eye on 1.1529-1.1484 for shorts
Weekly gain/loss: + 65 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.1465
EUR/USD bulls gravitated higher last week despite weekly price being positioned within the walls of a major supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278, which has capped upside since May 2015. This is the highest we’ve seen the single currency close since mid-Feb 2015, thus possibly signifying that the bears could be under serious pressure here!
Daily resistance at 1.1464, however, remains in play. This line boasts strong historical significance, managing to cap upside multiple times during the past couple of years, often delivering to-the-pip reactions! Should the bulls overcome this line this week, they’ll likely attempt an approach to a daily resistance level seen pegged at 1.1533, essentially denoting the upper edge of the said weekly supply.
A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 timeframe shows that price managed to find a strong pocket of bids around the support area marked at 1.1372-1.1390, and end the week closing above a mid-level resistance at 1.1450. The move was strongly influenced after US inflation and retail sales figures missed consensus, therefore sending the dollar lower and the EUR higher.
For those who have been following recent reports on the EUR/USD you may recall that our desk took a short from 1.1484. 50% of the position was liquidated around July’s opening level at 1.1417, with the remaining 50% left in the market to target the H4 Quasimodo support level at 1.1336: seen placed just nine pips above the top edge of a daily support area 1.1327-1.1253. Given Friday’s news and the strong close above 1.1450, we decided to close the remainder of our position at 1.1460.
Our suggestions: Although weekly price shows the bulls to have the upper hand right now, it would be unwise of us to disregard the fact that the aforementioned weekly supply is still in motion. What's more, daily resistance at 1.1464 and the nearby H4 supply seen at 1.1529-1.1484 has yet to be breached. Therefore, for us, the bears still have a hand in this fight until proven otherwise.
With the above taken into account, we will be watching the said H4 supply base for shorts again this week. However, instead of entering using a pending order as we did last time, we will be waiting for H4 candle confirmation in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bearish candle, before pulling the trigger.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events on the docket today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1529-1.1484 (waiting for a H4 bearish candle – preferably in the form of a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
Weekly closing price: 1.1465
EUR/USD bulls gravitated higher last week despite weekly price being positioned within the walls of a major supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278, which has capped upside since May 2015. This is the highest we’ve seen the single currency close since mid-Feb 2015, thus possibly signifying that the bears could be under serious pressure here!
Daily resistance at 1.1464, however, remains in play. This line boasts strong historical significance, managing to cap upside multiple times during the past couple of years, often delivering to-the-pip reactions! Should the bulls overcome this line this week, they’ll likely attempt an approach to a daily resistance level seen pegged at 1.1533, essentially denoting the upper edge of the said weekly supply.
A brief look at recent dealings on the H4 timeframe shows that price managed to find a strong pocket of bids around the support area marked at 1.1372-1.1390, and end the week closing above a mid-level resistance at 1.1450. The move was strongly influenced after US inflation and retail sales figures missed consensus, therefore sending the dollar lower and the EUR higher.
For those who have been following recent reports on the EUR/USD you may recall that our desk took a short from 1.1484. 50% of the position was liquidated around July’s opening level at 1.1417, with the remaining 50% left in the market to target the H4 Quasimodo support level at 1.1336: seen placed just nine pips above the top edge of a daily support area 1.1327-1.1253. Given Friday’s news and the strong close above 1.1450, we decided to close the remainder of our position at 1.1460.
Our suggestions: Although weekly price shows the bulls to have the upper hand right now, it would be unwise of us to disregard the fact that the aforementioned weekly supply is still in motion. What's more, daily resistance at 1.1464 and the nearby H4 supply seen at 1.1529-1.1484 has yet to be breached. Therefore, for us, the bears still have a hand in this fight until proven otherwise.
With the above taken into account, we will be watching the said H4 supply base for shorts again this week. However, instead of entering using a pending order as we did last time, we will be waiting for H4 candle confirmation in the shape of a full, or near-full-bodied bearish candle, before pulling the trigger.
Data points to consider: No high-impacting events on the docket today.
Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: Flat (stop loss: N/A).
• Sells: 1.1529-1.1484 (waiting for a H4 bearish candle – preferably in the form of a full, or near-full-bodied candle – is advised, stop loss: ideally beyond the candle’s wick).
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