EURUSD Potential Yearly Swing (Bearish Momentum)

Here’s my outlook for EURUSD in the following few months: We are likely to see some bullish movement toward the Bearish Order Block between 1.13000-1.13500, which aligns with the top of a descending channel from 2003. However, given the ongoing economic challenges in Europe, I anticipate a bearish trend for the euro over the next year, resembling the pattern we saw during 2021-2022. The euro is showing multiple signs of weakness, so let’s remain patient and focus on capitalizing on smaller trades. For those aiming to catch the longer-term swing trade that could extend for years, patience is key, it's approaching soon.

註釋

Price has decisively broken through the significant support level at 1.1100. My focus now shifts to the 1.100 level, which is a well established support/resistance area dating back to Jan'23. While this level is historically important as resistance, it has only been tested twice as support. Therefore, this third test will be pivotal.

Two scenarios could unfold.

If 1.100 holds, it would reinforce this level as a strong support, potentially leading to a rebound and another attempt to challenge the key resistance level at 1.1200.
Conversely, if 1.100 fails, the bearish momentum is likely to continue, with the next area of interest (AOI) around 1.0900 acting as the next support level.
This upcoming test of 1.100 will be crucial in determining the market's direction.

交易進行

I’m still holding onto my short positions from two weeks ago. Price action has played out as anticipated, breaking below 1.100 and reaching 1.09. As expected, there was a sharp reaction off the 1.09 level, and now the pair is retesting 1.0950, with the former support turning into resistance. With minimal news expected next week, it’s highly likely we’ll see some range-bound movement. Any significant volatility will likely come from remarks by the Fed or ECB.