Instrument: EUR/USD
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Trade Type: Countertrend Short
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.45
Duration: 2-4 days
📉 Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.13891
Target: 1.13049
Stop Loss: 1.14550
Risk: ~0.54%
Reward: ~0.78%
📌 Technical Rationale
Despite EUR/USD maintaining an overall bullish structure on higher timeframes, recent developments on the 15-minute chart indicate a potential short-term correction.
🧱 Trendline Break
Price action has decisively broken below a rising intraday trendline, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and opening the door for a corrective move.
📉 MACD Momentum Shift
The MACD histogram is contracting, and the signal line has crossed downward — often a leading indication of momentum reversal. This shift supports the short thesis as momentum fades near local highs.
📊 Stochastic RSI Confirmation
The Stochastic RSI has rolled over from overbought levels, aligning with the MACD's bearish signal and adding confluence to the setup.
🔼 Lower High Formation
Price failed to break and sustain above the previous swing high near 1.145x. The formation of a lower high within the minor uptrend adds to the probability of a short-term pullback.
🧭 Target Zone Justification
The 1.13049 level represents the next key support, coinciding with the prior consolidation zone and a low-volume pocket — providing a clean downside path for price to retrace.
🧠 Strategy Note
This is a countertrend setup, capitalizing on a temporary retracement within a larger bullish market. The defined structure and risk/reward profile make this a tactical opportunity for intraday or short-term swing traders. As always, monitor key news events and U.S. data that may impact USD volatility during the trade's lifespan.
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Trade Type: Countertrend Short
Risk/Reward Ratio: 1.45
Duration: 2-4 days
📉 Trade Parameters
Entry: 1.13891
Target: 1.13049
Stop Loss: 1.14550
Risk: ~0.54%
Reward: ~0.78%
📌 Technical Rationale
Despite EUR/USD maintaining an overall bullish structure on higher timeframes, recent developments on the 15-minute chart indicate a potential short-term correction.
🧱 Trendline Break
Price action has decisively broken below a rising intraday trendline, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and opening the door for a corrective move.
📉 MACD Momentum Shift
The MACD histogram is contracting, and the signal line has crossed downward — often a leading indication of momentum reversal. This shift supports the short thesis as momentum fades near local highs.
📊 Stochastic RSI Confirmation
The Stochastic RSI has rolled over from overbought levels, aligning with the MACD's bearish signal and adding confluence to the setup.
🔼 Lower High Formation
Price failed to break and sustain above the previous swing high near 1.145x. The formation of a lower high within the minor uptrend adds to the probability of a short-term pullback.
🧭 Target Zone Justification
The 1.13049 level represents the next key support, coinciding with the prior consolidation zone and a low-volume pocket — providing a clean downside path for price to retrace.
🧠 Strategy Note
This is a countertrend setup, capitalizing on a temporary retracement within a larger bullish market. The defined structure and risk/reward profile make this a tactical opportunity for intraday or short-term swing traders. As always, monitor key news events and U.S. data that may impact USD volatility during the trade's lifespan.
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