A break lower may be on the cards for the EUR today...
The EUR/USD took on more of a sober tone during Monday’s sessions, ranging between July’s opening level at 1.1417 and a H4 support area based at 1.1372-1.1390. Should the unit violate 1.1417 today, the next hurdle in the firing range is likely to be the H4 mid-level resistance 1.1450. A break below the current H4 support area on the other hand would likely open the gates down to the H4 Quasimodo support at 1.1336.
Moving over to the bigger picture, weekly flow remains loitering within the walls of a major supply zone drawn from 1.1533-1.1278 that has capped upside since May 2015. On the daily timeframe, however, we currently see a resistance level pegged at 1.1464 and a daily support area coming in at 1.1327-1.1253.
With weekly candles trading within such a respected supply zone at the moment, a break below the current H4 support base would not surprise us. This, according to both the daily and H4 timeframes, could open up a small gap south for a potential trade as beyond the H4 support area we have the aforementioned Quasimodo support to target, followed closely by the top edge of the daily support area at 1.1327 and then the 1.13 handle.
Our suggestions: Watch for a decisive break below the H4 support area at 1.1372-1.1390 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter. Ideally, we would like to see a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle take shape (preferably a full-bodied candle) following the retest, as this will, in our opinion, suggest seller intent.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Brainard speaks at 5.30pm GMT+1.
Moving over to the bigger picture, weekly flow remains loitering within the walls of a major supply zone drawn from 1.1533-1.1278 that has capped upside since May 2015. On the daily timeframe, however, we currently see a resistance level pegged at 1.1464 and a daily support area coming in at 1.1327-1.1253.
With weekly candles trading within such a respected supply zone at the moment, a break below the current H4 support base would not surprise us. This, according to both the daily and H4 timeframes, could open up a small gap south for a potential trade as beyond the H4 support area we have the aforementioned Quasimodo support to target, followed closely by the top edge of the daily support area at 1.1327 and then the 1.13 handle.
Our suggestions: Watch for a decisive break below the H4 support area at 1.1372-1.1390 and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter. Ideally, we would like to see a reasonably sized H4 bearish candle take shape (preferably a full-bodied candle) following the retest, as this will, in our opinion, suggest seller intent.
Data points to consider: FOMC member Brainard speaks at 5.30pm GMT+1.
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