Regarding the euro, the inflation outlook in the Eurozone is uncertain, and the European Central Bank (ECB) is not expected to shift its tightening policy quickly. On Tuesday (February 28th), the French CPI annual rate was recorded at 6.2%, higher than the expected 6.1% and the previous value of 6.0%; this indicates that there is a risk of a rebound in Eurozone inflation.
On the US dollar side, since early February, a series of economic data in the United States have been stronger than expected, and market expectations for US inflation have rebounded. Expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to rise, and the currency market has sharply raised the pricing of the peak of Fed interest rates. If the upcoming economic data continues to exceed expectations, there is still a possibility of further strength in the US dollar in the short term.
The Eurozone CPI for February, which will be announced on Thursday (March 2nd), and the US ISM Services PMI for February, which will be announced on Friday (March 3rd), are worth paying attention to. If US data continues to perform strongly, it will put pressure on the upside of EURUSD.
Looking at the EURUSD 4-hour chart, after a short-term rise, it is once again under pressure to fall back. The upward momentum is obviously insufficient, and there is a demand for a pullback. I personally expect the market to confirm a wave of support before ushering in a new round of upward movement, which will also be our entry opportunity.
My suggestion is to wait for the market to adjust to the range of 1.05400-1.05500 to initiate a long position layout. This is a key support level in the oscillation range and also a relatively good buying point. If you have large funds, you can enter in advance. Friends with small funds need to be patient and wait for the buying point to appear. The first profit-taking position above is 1.07200, and the second is 1.08000.
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註釋
still adjusting
註釋
Start to rise before reaching a better buying point, waiting for the next opportunity