EURUSD Insight

4月29日

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Last week, there were releases of the March PCE inflation index in the United States and a rate decision by the Bank of Japan. During this process, there appeared to be a slight continuation of the dollar's strength, with the euro expected to decline relatively. However, the FOMC regular meeting this week is expected to be a variable.

- The March PCE price index in the United States, released last week, exceeded expectations with a slight increase of 2.7% year-on-year compared to the expected 2.6% increase.
- On April 29th, the April consumer price index for Germany will be released.
- On April 30th, the April consumer price index for the Eurozone will be released.
- The FOMC meeting will take place from April 30th to May 2nd.
- On May 2nd, US employment indicators will be released.

EURUSD has recently shown a short-term rise, reaching resistance at the 1.07200 line. However, it is expected to move downward following resistance in this range. Although there is the variable of the FOMC, it is not expected that the Fed will adopt a dovish stance at the moment, so we will maintain a bearish view towards the 1.04500 line.

In summary of the expected movements, based on current prices, there is a short-term uptrend reaching a high at the 1.07200 line, followed by a reversal and a predominant medium-term decline towards the 1.04500 line.

If movements deviate from expectations, we will quickly adjust our strategy.