EURUSD: Towwards 1 and even bellow. Next target 0,92
For those of you who do follow my analysis on a regular basis, I've been studying the pair for quite a long time on a macro economic basis as well as on a chartist approach.
On the macro economic front, remember two major issues: 1- ECB is trying to import inflation and at the same time try to boost the level of production in two ways. On the one hand, by favoring exports and reducing the level of stocks in order to favor at first the rise of prices.
2- ECB wants to favor investment based on increasing demand in order to fight against a long term deflation situation, in other terms, in order to fight for a possible stagflation although some EU memberstates and some Eurozone countries are almost faced with stagflation.
On the other Hand, ECB is betting on the need of FED to increase its interest rate because of a possible inflation. This inflation is not mainly a priced based inflation but rather an inflation based on the monetary mass.
Keep in mind that commodities prices are still too low for ECB and has yet no effect on the inflation. If Oil was at 85 USD or above, it would have been, but that is not the case. Therefore, ECB needs to devaluate EUR against USD so that commodities prices have an impact on the inflation.
Therefore, After 1,3985, I was expecting EUR to go towards 1,25 at first, and then towards 1. At present time, EUR is about to come to 1 USD.
Here are the next level of Euro. 1,0192 which is the 0,764 Fib retracement from the all time high and all time low of Euro against USD.
And then the next support levels are 0,97- 0,92-0,90-0,85 and 0,8259. Bellow 0,8259 we need to make another Fib retracement because there is not any known support level bellow 0,8259.
ECB will spread on the market a lot of Euros and this will directly impact the parity of EURUSD. If FED increase its interest rate, this will accelerate the loss of value of EUR against USD. But yet, FED is not expected to raise its interest rate before the end of 3Q15.
On the macro economic front, remember two major issues: 1- ECB is trying to import inflation and at the same time try to boost the level of production in two ways. On the one hand, by favoring exports and reducing the level of stocks in order to favor at first the rise of prices.
2- ECB wants to favor investment based on increasing demand in order to fight against a long term deflation situation, in other terms, in order to fight for a possible stagflation although some EU memberstates and some Eurozone countries are almost faced with stagflation.
On the other Hand, ECB is betting on the need of FED to increase its interest rate because of a possible inflation. This inflation is not mainly a priced based inflation but rather an inflation based on the monetary mass.
Keep in mind that commodities prices are still too low for ECB and has yet no effect on the inflation. If Oil was at 85 USD or above, it would have been, but that is not the case. Therefore, ECB needs to devaluate EUR against USD so that commodities prices have an impact on the inflation.
Therefore, After 1,3985, I was expecting EUR to go towards 1,25 at first, and then towards 1. At present time, EUR is about to come to 1 USD.
Here are the next level of Euro. 1,0192 which is the 0,764 Fib retracement from the all time high and all time low of Euro against USD.
And then the next support levels are 0,97- 0,92-0,90-0,85 and 0,8259. Bellow 0,8259 we need to make another Fib retracement because there is not any known support level bellow 0,8259.
ECB will spread on the market a lot of Euros and this will directly impact the parity of EURUSD. If FED increase its interest rate, this will accelerate the loss of value of EUR against USD. But yet, FED is not expected to raise its interest rate before the end of 3Q15.
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