How Smart Money is Positioning in EUR/USD – 5 Scenarios Unfolded

Liquidity Maps & Trap Zones: EUR/USD 1H Breakdown

EUR/USD SMC Analysis – Scenarios Overview

1. Case 1 – Immediate Pump:
The market may pump directly from the current market price (CMP) and take out the external range liquidity resting above the current highs.

2. Case 2 – 15-Min Demand Reaction:
The market could react to the 15-minute demand zone, showing a bullish response and pushing higher toward the 1H supply zone.

3. Case 3 – Inducement & Distribution:
Combined with Case 2, the market may first mitigate the 15-minute demand, then take out the inducement (IdM) near the 1H supply zone. From there, distribution may begin within that supply range, leading to a drop toward the discount zone.
This would likely involve a fake breakout to the upside (liquidity sweep), trapping buyers and hitting the stop-losses of early sellers before reversing sharply.

4. Case 4 – 1H CHoCH and Triangle Breakdown:
A Change of Character (CHoCH) may occur on the 1H timeframe directly from the current price, leading to a downside move. This scenario would also break the rising triangle pattern, triggering entries from price action traders and increasing market volatility as liquidity accelerates the move downward.

5. Case 5 – 1H Supply Rejection & Free Fall:
The market may react from the 1H supply zone and reject aggressively, resulting in a free fall all the way down to the previous CHoCH level, confirming strong bearish intent from premium to discount.

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