EUR/USD: Technical outlook and review..

2016年9月11日

Weekly gain/loss: + 79 pips
Weekly closing price: 1.1230

Weekly view: Although the EUR did see an increase in value last week, we have to take into account that price was unable to close above the prior week’s high, and also rejected from the underside of a major resistance area at 1.1533-1.1278. Seeing as how this zone has managed to cap upside since May 2015, the bulls will likely have their work cut out for them should they intend on pushing this market north this week!

Daily view: Down here on the daily chart, however, price recently found a floor of bids from within a support area at 1.1224-1.1072. While this may be true, we can also see that the buyers were rather lethargic going into mid-week trading, with the market ending the week chalking up a prominent bearish candle. The next downside target from here can be seen at the trendline support extended from the low 1.0516, followed by a support area sitting at 1.0909-1.0982.

H4 view: A quick recap of Friday’s sessions on the H4 chart show that the single currency sold off going into London lunchtime, following comments made by Fed member Eric Rosengren. As a result, the mid-way support 1.1250 was taken out and price went on to connect with the 1.12 handle, which happens to merge beautifully with a 61.8% Fib support line.

Direction for the week: While there is a possibility of further consolidation around the current daily support area, we feel pressure from the overhead weekly supply will eventually push prices south to test the aforementioned daily trendline.

Direction for today: With there being little market-moving news scheduled for release today, we may see some ranging action between the 1.12 hurdle and the H4 mid-way resistance 1.1250. If, however, the market closes beyond 1.12, this could spark a selloff down to at least the H4 trendline support taken from the low 1.1045, and maybe even the H4 demand base seen below it at 1.1131-1.1143.

Our suggestions: In the event that the market does indeed close below 1.12, a short trade could be possible on the retest of this number if followed up by a H4 bearish close. Should this come to view, the above said H4 supports in bold would be our initial take-profit targets. Our ultimate take-profit zone, nevertheless, is seen between the H4 support at 1.1075 and the 1.11 band.

Not only is this a good take-profit area, it is also a fantastic barrier to look for longs. It sits within the depths of the aforementioned daily support area, and merges with both the above noted daily trendline support and also a deep H4 88.6% Fib support at 1.1081. Therefore, do keep an eyeball on this area during the week guys!

Levels to watch/live orders:
• Buys: 1.1075/1.11 strong-looking buy zone which could, dependent on the time of day and approach, be sufficient enough to condone an entry without lower timeframe confirmation (Stop loss: 1.1060).
• Sells: Watch for price to close below the 1.12 handle and then look to trade any retest seen thereafter (H4 bearish close required prior to pulling the trigger).