Fundamental Market Analysis for January 16, 2025 EURUSD

前天

EUR/USD is holding near 1.0295 in the early Asian session on Thursday. Lower than expected US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December raises the possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates twice this year, putting pressure on the US Dollar. However, growing concerns over Eurozone economic growth could limit the major pair's gains.

The US Dollar (USD) declined after weaker than expected US core CPI data, fuelling expectations that the Fed's easing cycle is not yet over. Markets now expect the US central bank to cut rates by 40 basis points (bps) before the end of the year, compared to around 31 bps before the inflation data was released.

Across the ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates four times last year and traders expect three or four changes this year due to concerns about the Eurozone's weak economic outlook. Rising bets on further ECB interest rate cuts could undermine the euro (EUR) against the U.S. dollar in the near term.

Later on Thursday, investors will be watching Germany's Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for December and the ECB monetary policy meeting report. In the US, the main events will be retail sales data for December and weekly initial jobless claims.

Trade recommendation: Watch the level of 1.0260, when fixing below consider Sell positions, when rebounding consider Buy positions.