230620 - COUNTING CANDLES - EUR/USD - 4h-TF

Until a week ago, EUR/USD provided great trading opportunities at European Open.

A/
On the leg down, every other day, at around 10:00 CET, a simple sell order no-questions-asked would have made consistent money. The touches to the 21-EMA: confirmation.

Around the .23 Fibo -> system failed: more than 7 consecutive moves are rare + Support Level + USD weakness (not EUR Strength)
-> visible across the pairs. And gold.

B/
On the leg up, every day at 10:00 CET a buy order, for a Long White, of similar size each day, until it blew out late last week.

C/
Today at 10:00 CET this system didn’t work. And a Doji formed. The market has come to a crossroads

Price has arrived at the level of a previous distribution zone. Before that: LTF trend was Up. I am expecting continuation, of the trend that started Oct 22.

D/
TAKE NOTE:
Each time XAU/USD tumbles, USD goes freefall. The reverse doesn’t happen when XAU/USD rises. This correlation dictates long-term; USD is down, and EUR up. Applying the little knowledge I have about Macro-Economy (the essence without the BS), there’s no other way. TA of the FX-charts confirms the Macros. But we’re also going through a period where MMT is increasingly replaced with Supply-Side Economy, and Mercantilism. It’s hard to know which school of Macro-Economics is dictating anything.

I see Gold down a little more first, and then up again -> this will revalue USD down, and EUR up.