EUR/USD Analysis

已更新

WEEKLY- Looks Bullish

Price was able to hold the 23.6% retracement and we were able to break the high of the previous week. Looks like price might want to retest the highs again.

DAILY - Possibly Bearish

Price has entered a very strong inflection zone and has hit the monthly pivot point, which also coincides with the 61% retracement from the daily swing high on Sept.20. The confluence of resistance might see price pushed back to retest the low 1700s.

H4 - Looks Bearish

Price looks like its being rejected by a descending trend-line from early September. Lots of resistance here, definitely looks bearish.

Fundamentals

Weak jobs data coupled with weak US consumer data coming out on Friday doesn't help the chances of the Fed raising interest rates in December, the Fed Fund Futures have gone higher implying less confidence in a December rate hike. The ECB isn't very confident with their inflation numbers and doesn't look like we will see a rate hike anytime soon.

I am currently in a short position entered at 1.1850

Target is 1.1700
Stop-loss at 1.1910

If price continues to climb this coming week and breaks through 1.1900 then I believe we will see a re-test of the market highs. I will wait and look to establish a short position in the 1.2000s.

交易結束：達到停損點

I have been stopped out at break-even (1.1850)

As you can see price has made a higher low and has broken my trend-line that I had used to enter the trade. Price continues to look bullish on the weekly chart, I will wait to see if we will break past the resistance at 1.1880-1.1900 before deciding on a direction.