DanV
教育

EURUSD – Is it doing an about turn for the worse? - Update

FX:EURUSD   歐元 / 美元
In my previous chart of EURUSD             , you will find lots of details explaining why I am anticipating a new bearish cycle in which the wave 4 (in circle) was about completed and wave 5 (in circle) was about to commence. There are lots of additional charts in comment section to help validate longer term view. This chart is linked below for your reference.

We did not have the follow through to initial decline. Instead a new high was pasted last week. At present, I do not think that this has really changed much for the longer term. In the short term wave 4 was still in progress.

So this is a second attempt to identify possible completion of wave 4, which could now be in place or will be shortly. If correct then wave 5 will follow as anticipated.

In addition to details describe in the earlier chart referred to above, here is the summary of updated technical:
1. We have a trendline from July 2008 high, connection April 2011 high (but ignoring May 2014 as over throw) which comes in to proximity of current price that might mark wave 4 high.
2. We have an uptrend line on RSI from 2013 and August 2017 peak appear to suggest a hidden bearish divergence along with normal divergence with price making new high above August peak and RSI making lower high.
3. In addition to that, we have possible time symmetry shown on the chart – namely April 2011 High to March 2014 closing high measures 150 bars on weekly charts, which equates to approx 149 bars measured from March 2015 low to current high.
4. Fibonacci time relationship between Waves 1 – 3 and wave 4 is approx Fib ration of 1.3618 as shown in the chart.
5. Open Interest and Net Long by Large Speculators is even more extreme now than the one we noted at previous peak in August/September 2017, see chart below.

Short Entry: You can drop down to daily or 4 hour time frame to time short entry on confirmation using your normal method. Just keep in mind that it might can chop about before it gets going in anticipated decline.

Warning: This is my interpretation of price action using TA approach that I consider helps the me most, but could be completely wrong. Therefore, as always, do your own analysis for your trade requirement and ignore my views.
For those who appreciate my analysis, select to follow me and the chart for notification of future updates. Indicate you like my analysis by thumbs up, comments and sharing it with others. If you have an alternative idea then, please be constructive and share for all to learn from.

Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis.

DanV
評論: COT Data:
snapshot


DXY -
snapshot
評論:
snapshot
評論: Draghi was able to turn Euro's longer term direction back in 2012 saying "whatever it takes" and it market a major low. In 2014 he said "Euro is too expensive or over valued" and it market Euro's top. What will he say now?
snapshot
評論: Need confirmation but so far the divergences on OBV and RSI together with the type of candle and associated volume so not look good. At least a correction is likley.
snapshot
評論: They say topping is a process. Well that could be the case with EURUSD. Unless we breakout strongly above 1.2550, the reversal could be close. Whilst we have make a spike high above 25th January spike on EURUSD, the March Futures contacts for DXY has not made new low since and last weeks retest of that low was on much lower volume than the one on 25th January as show in the snapshot - https://www.screencast.com/t/hulVrS6PF
Here is the updated chart of EURUSD on weekly time frame and break below 1.2250 could confirm that anticipated reversal -
snapshot
http://www.danv-charting.com
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UChJVIJir7nymD9J3ZWoal-w/feed
https://www.tradingview.com/chat/#E4bnOJSWcO1zDjBG
i am sure its eu going down now
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@japa, That is what is anticipated. Need a close below 1.2250 to confirm.
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Mario said "I dont care. Im gonna retire soon.".
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@Notyour, Hahaha, now that is very possible, though I would not impute bad motives.
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Trend line drawn on monthly chart coincides with yearly resistance 1, 0.618 retracement of the big drop from 1.40, and 0.618 extension of current ABCD move next months. I expect large correction - at least to yearly pivot - or trend reversal there. Today's drop could be just a reaction for overbought signals. Time will tell...
snapshot
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DanV MOD Jeff_Wheelwright
@Jeff_Wheelwright, Yes that too is possible. Should that play out, then I would need to revise my entire analysis and wave labels for EURUSD and DXY. Thanks for sharing.
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