The EUR/USD looks set to break to a new low for the year, as nothing has fundamentally changed to encourage dip buyers to step in yet. Will that change after the FOMC decision today remains to be seen?
But I think the Fed is going to maintain a hawkish stance, which should keep the dollar supported.
The euro faces continued headwinds from a weak Eurozone economy, crippled because of an energy crisis among other things. Russia's President Putin has said that military reservists are to be sent to Ukraine as part of a "partial mobilisation" of his forces which means the war looks like will drag on unfortunately. This is bad news for the Eurozone and its energy crisis.
With EUR/USD breaking short-term support in the shaded region shown on the chart, the path of least resistance remains to the downside inside the long-term bear channel. A break to a new low looks increasingly likely.
Admittedly, the EUR/USD looks severely oversold and much of the downside risks may already be priced in. But I will only change my view on the EUR/USD when the charts tell us by making a higher high or creating a key reversal pattern.