EURO and Germany IP and Factory Orders

2016年3月6日

Watching EUR's economic data coming out this week. So far, it doesn't look good. Here is a chart of their German manufacturing PMI, which looks terrible: tradingeconomics.com/germany/manufacturing-pmi/forecast

This could effect the German industrial production data coming up this week. The consensus is that it will do better. 0.4% is expected versus -1.2% previously; but I beg to differ. I believe that the numbers will come out as a shocking surprise to the downside, given what I know.

I am waiting on one thing, which is Monday's factory orders: tradingeconomics.com/germany/factory-orders If factory orders come out bad as well and not good, then then all hell will break loose and this will just confirm my short-term-macro-bias for this week. Of course, I might end up sticking with the charts to gauge sentiment, but I am happy that I can put a face to the charts instead of throwing blind buy and sell orders into a black hole like most do.

Maybe I can get a trade or two in before Draghi's rate decision on Thursday at 7:45 am EST. This is something that I cannot predict, but the rest, so far, not god data for the EUR.

Chart-wise:
We are in a monthly downtrend, consolidating in a monthly-to-weekly triangle since March 2015.
The 4 hour chart is still in a downtrend. I don't see an opportunity yet, but it seems that 1.1000 is a special number for the EURUSD pair.


The dollar looks like it is falling, which could send EURUSD higher:

I am waiting for clearer evidence, like Yellen.

2016年3月8日

註釋

German Factory orders came out as -1% instead of -4%. It is still bad, but better than expected.

This put a spin on my prediction on the German industrial production from a negative to a wait-and-see, with my hands under my lap. This, too, came out positive, as can be seen in the following chart: tradingeconomics.com/germany/industrial-production-mom
gyazo.com/c687947aa05547197e7d490f2a60c934

This put an extra spin on my forcast: gyazo.com/b3562bf80321e507be8d6c66e8b9c65c

GDP came out 3% as expected.

This challenges my negative forecast on the data for Thursday as well, to wait-and-see. Also on Thursday now, the market waits for Draghi's decision on Thursday at 7:45am. I have a feeling he will say, "Everything is happening as planned." haha! But, I don't really know. For now, it seems, everything is a technical ping-pong.

Friday's German CPI should not move the markets as theMaybe negative CPI already came out, unless there is a huge mistake or revision, but the PPI hasn't been growing and also the CPI has been effected.

Going forward, USOIL looks like it is pulling back. If it continues to rally after the pullback, then we finally may see clear signs of inflation in the commodities.