EURUSD Bearish Structure Forming Amid Dollar Uncertainty

5月7日

EURUSD appears to be carving out a series of lower highs, showing potential signs of distribution. With price compressing inside a symmetrical triangle following multiple failed breakout attempts, the stage could be set for a bearish breakdown. This comes as U.S. inflation and Fed policy hold the spotlight and the euro faces political and structural crosswinds.

📉 Technical Breakdown (4H Chart)
Triple Top / Head & Shoulders Variant Forming:

Price action has traced a rounded top sequence, forming a triple top or complex head and shoulders structure.

Each rally attempt has been followed by steeper declines and faster recoveries—typical of a topping process.

Triangle Contraction Zone:

Current price is consolidating into a symmetrical triangle, which is often a continuation pattern.

Bearish breakout is expected if support around 1.1330–1.1320 fails.

Key Bearish Targets:

TP1: 1.1090 – former resistance turned support.

TP2: 1.0890 – April breakout base and key structure low.

Trade Setup (as per chart):

Sell Entry Zone: Break and retest of 1.1320–1.1300.

Stop Loss: Above 1.1527 (supply zone high).

Targets:

TP1: 1.1090

TP2: 1.0890

🌐 Macro Context
USD Side:

Fed is holding rates steady amid rising inflation fears triggered by tariffs

Tariff shocks are already pushing prices up, while growth slows—a tough environment for the Fed.

Dollar could strengthen if market sentiment shifts risk-off.

Euro Side:

Former EU Commissioner Gentiloni calls for unified borrowing to boost the euro’s global role, as U.S. stability is questioned

Political uncertainty around German leadership transitions may also weigh on the euro short term.

✅ Conclusion
EURUSD is trading at the apex of a tightening triangle pattern following a distribution structure. With a clean break of 1.1320 support, expect increased volatility and bearish momentum toward 1.1090 and 1.0890.

5月7日

註釋

EU data is deteriorating: German industrial production missed, and Eurozone retail sales fell again

Political risk rising in Europe (French fiscal issues, German leadership transition) while the U.S. dollar is holding up well despite tariffs.

ECB remains cautious—no hawkish signals to support the euro.

On the chart, EURUSD is breaking below a triangle support near 1.1320, confirming bearish structure.

5月12日

交易結束：目標達成

EURUSD +273 PIPS CLOSED.

5月12日

註釋

USD has made the move so pullback is likely

5月12日

註釋

5月14日

註釋