EURUSD Insight

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Key Points
- The Bank of England cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, with some policymakers advocating for a bigger cut.
- U.S. nonfarm payrolls for January increased by 143,000, falling short of the market expectation of 170,000. The January unemployment rate came in at 4.0%, lower than the market estimate of 4.1%. The market still views the labor market as strong.
- Former U.S. President Trump stated that reciprocal tariff discussions would take place on Monday or Tuesday following the U.S.-Japan summit. Speaking to reporters aboard his private jet en route to New Orleans for the Super Bowl on the 9th, he announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S.

Key Economic Events This Week
+ Feb 10: New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations
+ Feb 11: Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 12: U.S. January CPI, Fed Chair Powell's speech
+ Feb 13: U.K. Q4 GDP, Germany January CPI, U.S. January PPI
+ Feb 14: U.S. January retail sales

EUR/USD Chart Analysis
The pair has been facing resistance around the 1.04500 level, leading to a continued downtrend. Repeated failures to break above resistance suggest further declines ahead. In the medium to long term, a drop toward the 1.00500 level, near parity, is expected.

However, if the price rises to 1.06000, the medium- to long-term trend would shift to an uptrend, prompting a quick adjustment in strategy.