Fed’s dot plot is the catalyst for EURUSD

2019年3月19日

The week ahead the market will bring a key set of important eurozone macro data releases including FOMC meeting followed by a Press Conference.

The combination of weaker dollar last week, dovish ECB message the other week and growing pessimism in pricing on this week’s FOMC meeting makes the single currency weakness on hold.

Data studies suggest that the eurozone growth set to remain weak as the economic fundamentals are weak and the outlooks remain dull. Moreover, recent ECB dovish tone should cap the incoming rallies at crucial resistance levels.

EURUSD rose slightly further on Monday, traders awaiting the FOMC meeting later this week. Recent recovery helped the single currency closed higher for six days out of seven trading sessions but the EURSUD failed to breach 50, and 100MAs spread between 1.1360-1.1365 levels.

Weaker dollar and buying in G10 currencies pushed the single currency to almost 50.0% reaction of 1.1570-1.1175 fall. We believe weakness in the weekly price action is looking evidently, bears attitude at this stage appear to be in no mood to give up their strength; moreover, the 1year descending trendline is still active on the weekly chart. We see the bullish signal on the daily time frame along with the weaker dollar are the only factors healing the single currency since a week.

Key support levels find at 1.1300, 1.1230 and 1.1170. The flip side, resistance levels to watch out are 1.1370 and 1.1420/1.1440.

In case of an ultra-dovish FOMC meeting could push the price further higher to 1.1500/1.1530 if 1.1440 taken out.
http://www.keytomarkets.com/blog/blog/ktm-fx-weekly-feds-dot-plot-is-the-catalyst-for-eurusd/