EUR/USD Weekly analysis

Double analysis on EUR/USD.

Analysis 1: What we see right now on the weekly is a false break setup below the monthly S/R zone. Which means that price will bounce back inside the range and target the weekly upper zone.

Analysis 2: Price broke down and is now re-testing the zone and will continue downwards to the lower weekly zone.

Until I can see a more clear indication, I am staying neutral.
It has only broke to the lower weekly zone one time before, back in 1999. Before the break lower we also saw a false break of the monthly zone first.

Note: The price is currently trending to the downside with pullbacks to the 20 MA, which indicates a strong trend. (Because price is respecting it).
Looking at the monthly, price is not respecting any MA's.

What are your thoughts? Leave them in the comments down below.