HTF pressure appears to be to the downside on EUR/USD
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422, though mid-month ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]), giving rise to a possible shooting star candlestick pattern – a Japanese bearish reversal configuration.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, the aforesaid Fib targets have yet to be met. Though knowing the US dollar index shows room to move higher (inversely correlated to EUR/USD), this increases the odds of 1.1106 making a show this week.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The second half of the week had two trendline supports (1.1422/1.0780), as well as demand fixed from 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply), derail downside attempts.
So far, buyers have made their presence felt from the aforesaid areas, though upside remains somewhat slack despite limited resistance in sight until 1.1348.
Failure to uphold current structure could result in another layer of demand making a show at 1.1115/1.1139.
H1 timeframe:
Demand at 1.1181/1.1202, a base glued to the upper boundary of H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158 and one that contains the 1.12 level, remains on site.
The response out of 1.1181/1.1202 has produced a local ascending channel between 1.1190/1.1231, closing in on 1.1250 as feasible resistance and the 100-period simple moving average, currently circling 1.1259.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
The lower base of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 throws light on a possible shooting star candlestick pattern (bearish), and the daily chart reminds traders there’s also scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106 this week.
Short term:
Although downside pressure from higher timeframes hamper bids out of H1/H4 demands, 1.1250 on the H1 is still likely to put in an appearance this week. This represents an ideal take-profit base for longs off H1/H4 demands and, at the same time, puts forward a possible reversal zone for selling opportunities in line with higher-timeframe direction.
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
May, as you can see, recovered off worst levels out of demand from 1.0488/1.0912.
June extended gains to highs at 1.1422, though mid-month ran into opposition at the lower ledge of supply from 1.1857/1.1352 (unites with long-term trendline resistance [1.6038]), giving rise to a possible shooting star candlestick pattern – a Japanese bearish reversal configuration.
With reference to the primary trend, the pair has exhibited clear lower peaks and troughs since 2008.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The month of June observed EUR/USD address a potential reversal zone (PRZ), derived from a harmonic bearish bat pattern. The base is comprised of an 88.6% Fib level at 1.1395, a 161.8% BC projection at 1.1410 and a 161.8% Fib ext. level at 1.1462 (red oval).
It’s typical, in the case of bearish formations, to see traders sell PRZs and place protective stop-loss orders above the X point (1.1495). Common take-profit targets fall in at the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib levels (legs A/D) at 1.1106 and 1.0926, respectively.
As you can see, the aforesaid Fib targets have yet to be met. Though knowing the US dollar index shows room to move higher (inversely correlated to EUR/USD), this increases the odds of 1.1106 making a show this week.
H4 timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
The second half of the week had two trendline supports (1.1422/1.0780), as well as demand fixed from 1.1189/1.1158 (prior supply), derail downside attempts.
So far, buyers have made their presence felt from the aforesaid areas, though upside remains somewhat slack despite limited resistance in sight until 1.1348.
Failure to uphold current structure could result in another layer of demand making a show at 1.1115/1.1139.
H1 timeframe:
Demand at 1.1181/1.1202, a base glued to the upper boundary of H4 demand at 1.1189/1.1158 and one that contains the 1.12 level, remains on site.
The response out of 1.1181/1.1202 has produced a local ascending channel between 1.1190/1.1231, closing in on 1.1250 as feasible resistance and the 100-period simple moving average, currently circling 1.1259.
Structures of Interest:
Long term:
The lower base of monthly supply at 1.1857/1.1352 throws light on a possible shooting star candlestick pattern (bearish), and the daily chart reminds traders there’s also scope for a drop to the 38.2% Fib level at 1.1106 this week.
Short term:
Although downside pressure from higher timeframes hamper bids out of H1/H4 demands, 1.1250 on the H1 is still likely to put in an appearance this week. This represents an ideal take-profit base for longs off H1/H4 demands and, at the same time, puts forward a possible reversal zone for selling opportunities in line with higher-timeframe direction.
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