EUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis

6 天前

EUR/USD 4H Timeframe Analysis


Trend Analysis:
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is displaying a bearish structure with a triple top formation at the minor key resistance level of 1.04400. After forming the second top, the price broke below the minor key support at 1.03400, retested it, and then formed the third top at resistance.
Currently, the price is trending downward toward the minor key support at 1.03400, indicating a potential breakout below this level to continue the bearish momentum.

Price Action Expectation:
Our objective is to wait for the price to break below the 1.03400 support. A break below this level will confirm further downside, providing an opportunity for a short position.

Fundamental Correlation:
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims reports scheduled for release later today are critical events that could heavily impact the USD.
Stronger-than-expected ADP data and lower-than-expected unemployment claims would indicate a robust labor market, potentially strengthening the USD and aligning with our bearish view on EUR/USD.

Trade Setup:

Trade Type: Sell Stop (Breakout Trade)
Entry: 1.03340 (on confirmation of a break below support)
Stop Loss: 1.04360 (above the resistance to account for false breakouts)
Take Profit: 1.01220 (next significant support level)

Conclusion:
EUR/USD is poised for a potential bearish continuation, with the triple top formation and recent retests suggesting further downside. The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Claims data could provide the catalyst for a breakout below 1.03400. Wait for confirmation of a break below this level before entering a short position.

Risk Management:
Maintain a disciplined approach with a 1:2 risk-to-reward ratio. Position sizes should align with your account equity, and it’s crucial to monitor real-time price reactions to validate or invalidate the setup, especially during and after the news releases.