Monthly performance since inception

This is the monthly non-perfect channel chart of EURUSD as far as the data is concerned.
A simple math shows that the mean area is around 1.20 - 1.22 which has been tested as S/R zone or broken a handful of times. Since the climax of 1.60 which serve as a turning point at the resistance of the upper uptrend channel and the onset of downtrend channel, EURUSD has engaged itself in a long term downtrend channel or so.
However, the the last drop was supported by 1.20 - 1.22 zone and it bounce back without reaching the bottom of the downtrend channel line shown.
Still after a slight false breakout of the upper downtrend line, it was rejected and began to plunge for 4.5 months.
Something fishy emerged at the moment. I observed a not-so-steep uptrend channel (light blue) protruding out.

2 possibilities could happen:

1. Either the price will bounce off from this light blue channel bottom and get rejected by the resistance of downtrend channel line and continue to drop to 1.20 - 1.22 zone (black dotted cursor)

2. Or based on the current bearish momentum, it will continue plunging to test 1.20 - 1.22 first before reversal (shown in red dotted line)

i do not rule out other possibilities though