setup on H4

FX_IDC:EURUSD   歐元 / 美元
142 1
There's a bearish kumo breakout
There's a bearish shark and even better a possible H&S or a double top higher
There's bearish divergence on H1, not on H4
We have a dark future cloud which is bearish

Overall EURUSD is bullish and is trying to break this level with a TP around 1,13 levels.

With all this info, I think the EURUSD will continue to move in the 1,90 area trying to go higher but with a lot of bearish break down risk.

1st scenario

On H1 bearish divergence combined with the bearish shark , it hit 50% of the fibo retracement. If the market give's a push up to complete the first right shoulder of the H&S we may fall.

2nd scenario

The other possible way I see is, if pair does not push higher and does not complete the first right shoulder it will make a correction down before the next rise UP with as target the 618 retracement .
This will complete the second possible right shoulder of the H&S then probably fall down.
(note: the bar has to touch or break the 618 but has to close below the 618 !).

3rd scenario

If the price closes above the 618 retracement , this can lead to a double top higher before falling down. In this case have no idea what will happen. After closing above the 618 it may correct down before the next rise or it can shoot up to complete the double top . In this case target is 1,10. Once there's a double top the pair can drop down deep but it can also just make a correction before the next rise.

Strict important: I am not a professional trader. This is just my point of view and my prediction can be completely wrong !
Trade safe and trade always your own plan. This information is only for educational purposes and may not be considered as trade advice. GL !
評論: Divergence on H1
評論: GL !
評論: Looks like we have more Something looking like scénario 3
This is the worse than I expected. It's going to hit 78,6 and extreme 88,6
Then retracement down, will it break deep? It can also bull to 1,10 that's the target now. Better to stay out. Good EU numbers can push it higher but how long will this excitement remain? Let's see if it's drawing a double top. Then it will probably be possible to predict if it will break or continue the bullish movement with as target 1,13
評論: We begin to see divergence on the H4.
評論: reversal down expected around 78,6 and 88,6. Maybe a pin bar higher at 1,10.
Bullish traders where right. How much down?
評論: Strong hidden bearish divergence now on H1 and H4.
評論: On the H4 the hidden divergence may be a little higher. This hidden divergence can hide also regular bearish divergence in this case we hit 1,10 first.
評論: When I wrote that scenario 3 is worse it's because it can go either way and in different directions up and down.
評論: It can break down or it may correct down before the next rise. I see that the bearish shark was not working, the 1st H&S and also the 2nd was not working, some traders mention the possible right shoulder higher which I do not understand but this looks like not working as well and now the chance exist that even the double top will not work properly as expected. EU inflation is good and this can push the pair higher and higher. There's still hidden divergence and it may change in regular bearish but with adapted corrections down it may also never break to close the gap.
評論: That's exactly what I suspected. The positive inflation affects the European markets. Therefore, I referred to the fact that all downward movements did not work and that all indicators failed. If this will continue, that's the question. This is definitely a firm emotional move, but if it works, it works. Although there are very strong negative indications, the EU market has a high degree of weakness and, in fact, nothing changes globally. The only real change in the EU situation is the emotion and positivism of future strategies, but facts that prove the certainty of the succes of all this do not exist. It's all about blind speculation just as before and ... well actually it works fine. So technically, the EURUSD certainly had to fall, but the excitement clearly has the upper hand and now the EURUSD can rise as I said earlier to 1.13.
Tradingview seems to work. No problems to post Yay! :D
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