Looking to short H4 supply at 1.2029-1.2007...
Following a breakdown through the H4 mid-level support at 1.1950, the single currency lost steam on Tuesday as price managed to find a fresh pocket of bids just ahead of H4 demand at 1.1907-1.1926. This saw the unit springboard itself back above 1.1950 to a high of 1.1973 on the day.
Looking at the weekly chart, we can clearly see that since the beginning of 2017 the EUR has been trading with a reasonably strong bias to the upside. Over the past few weeks, nevertheless, the pair finds itself tackling a resistance level pegged at 1.2044. Seeing as how weekly movement over on the USDX chart (see above) is also seen trading nearby a resistance at 11854, this may eventually translate into a dollar selloff and a bid EUR. Still, should the unit continue to decline from current price, the next support target in the firing range can be seen at 1.1871, followed closely by daily demand plotted at 1.1739-1.1823.
Suggestions: Although H4 price looks poised to extend north to shake hands with the key 1.20 level, we are wary of buying at this time given weekly selling from resistance at 1.2044. Instead, we have our beady little eye on the 1.20 region for shorts. Yes, this would mean selling against the grain, but seeing that we have a H4 supply lodged just above 1.20 at 1.2029-1.2007, coupled with a 50.0% retracement value at 1.2009 drawn from the high 1.2092, this is a relatively high-probability trade, in our humble opinion.
A pending order has been set at 1.2005, with a stop-loss order positioned at 1.2031 (will only be removed in the event of a high-impacting news event). The first area of concern, should the trade move into favor, is 1.1950, shadowed closely by the aforesaid H4 demand.
Data points to consider: US PPI data at 1.30pm GMT+1.
Looking at the weekly chart, we can clearly see that since the beginning of 2017 the EUR has been trading with a reasonably strong bias to the upside. Over the past few weeks, nevertheless, the pair finds itself tackling a resistance level pegged at 1.2044. Seeing as how weekly movement over on the USDX chart (see above) is also seen trading nearby a resistance at 11854, this may eventually translate into a dollar selloff and a bid EUR. Still, should the unit continue to decline from current price, the next support target in the firing range can be seen at 1.1871, followed closely by daily demand plotted at 1.1739-1.1823.
Suggestions: Although H4 price looks poised to extend north to shake hands with the key 1.20 level, we are wary of buying at this time given weekly selling from resistance at 1.2044. Instead, we have our beady little eye on the 1.20 region for shorts. Yes, this would mean selling against the grain, but seeing that we have a H4 supply lodged just above 1.20 at 1.2029-1.2007, coupled with a 50.0% retracement value at 1.2009 drawn from the high 1.2092, this is a relatively high-probability trade, in our humble opinion.
A pending order has been set at 1.2005, with a stop-loss order positioned at 1.2031 (will only be removed in the event of a high-impacting news event). The first area of concern, should the trade move into favor, is 1.1950, shadowed closely by the aforesaid H4 demand.
Data points to consider: US PPI data at 1.30pm GMT+1.
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