Goldman and BofA agree: The dollar is losing its edge

Goldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro.

Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC meeting, where Fed officials signal fewer rate cuts, may only cause a brief bout of euro weakness against the dollar.

EUR/USD has recently broken out of a long-term descending triangle pattern, which capped price action from mid-April through early June, aligning with Goldman Sachs’ and BofA’s view of a broad EUR strength/ USD weakness.

This recent pullback to the 1.1480 area is a retest of former resistance turned support, suggesting a potential continuation pattern if buyers defend this level.