61% Probability on EWW (Strangle)

Yesterday We got a close above the 200 Moving average and EWW is right inside the Volume area, and right at the Point of control. So I expect two-way action between buyers and sellers, giving me a chance to make a neutral trade.

With EWW IV Rank at 57, I sold the 54/50 Strangle (30 Delta) that expires in February, to take advantage of the high volatility .

The trade:
30 Days to Expiration (2/16/2018)
Sold the 54 CAll
Sold the 50 PUTS
Credit receives $1.10 each
Max profit $110.00 for each contract
Probability of profit 61%
交易進行: With 22 days left on the trade and still high implied volatility. I decided to extend the duration of the trade to 50 days by rolling to the march expiration.

I still wanted to be inside the expected move, so I rolled up and out both calls and puts. This is somewhat risky, and I could be whipsaw, but I am just playing the probabilities that it will stay inside that expected move most of the time.

The roll was:
Buy to close the Feb 50 Put
Buy to close the Feb 54 Call
Sell to open the Mar 52 Put
Sell to open the Mar 56 Call

Credit received for the roll $0.30
Now my total credit received is $1.40
Will close the trade at $0.85

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