A good time for a macro chart update here with rotation underway... protectionist tensions are spreading beyond trade, earnings remains soft and valuations are expensive... all the ingredients in the pot for volatility to continue ticking higher:
The front running of Central Banks by pricing in rate cuts over the next year is too ambitious and risks for disappointment are high. With global PMIs (US joined the party today) all turning down and showing signs that further softness will persist in the current macro climate I like being bearish Equities in October.
The cyclical trade can be seen through the proxies above, here tracking more than ever for any sustained rotation flows confirming the end of cycle fact.
Good luck those positioning for October and Q4.
The front running of Central Banks by pricing in rate cuts over the next year is too ambitious and risks for disappointment are high. With global PMIs (US joined the party today) all turning down and showing signs that further softness will persist in the current macro climate I like being bearish Equities in October.
The cyclical trade can be seen through the proxies above, here tracking more than ever for any sustained rotation flows confirming the end of cycle fact.
Good luck those positioning for October and Q4.
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