GBP AUD - back in longs after 1.765 structure rejected

2020年7月25日

Hello traders and analysts,

we have a nice update to GBP AUD - now the weekly [Green] and monthly [purple] zone has been touched and rejected - the bulls are in play now

COT data:
Pay attention to the Long positions added back in June. The sentiment has changed dramatically
Aussie cot Data -
Date Long Short Total %Long %Short Net Change
14/07/20 45,543 41,293 86,836 52% 48% 4,250 4,944
07/07/20 44,740 45,434 90,174 50% 50% -694 2,214
30/06/20 40,025 42,933 82,958 48% 52% -2,908 1,902
23/06/20 35,974 40,784 76,758 47% 53% -4,810 1,722
16/06/20 31,685 38,217 69,902 45% 55% -6,532 30,043
09/06/20 29,912 66,487 96,399 31% 69% -36,575 4,216

GBP COT
14/07/2020 43,175 56,761 99,936 43% 57% -13,586 2,822
07/07/2020 39,892 56,300 96,192 41% 59% -16,408 4,582
30/06/2020 34,424 55,414 89,838 38% 62% -20,990 -2,474
23/06/2020 29,654 48,170 77,824 38% 62% -18,516 -2,518
16/06/2020 29,378 45,376 74,754 39% 61% -15,998 8,050
09/06/2020 28,893 52,941 81,834 35% 65% -24,048 11,996

Technicals:
What can we see technically?
- Daily bearish but breaking momentum short in the channel.
- weekly bearish
- monthly also bearish -
- strong Aussie and Strong GBP [relatively against USD]
- bounce from the demand zone - this has now been completed
- we can see the trend beginning to add long positions to correct - this has now occurred.
- we have made lower lows and lower highs- showing the correction
- now in a consolidation zone with some great wicks formed and a reversal to the upside - this has been boosted by GBP Tuesday as of writing.
-AUD USD ranging market looking to break 0.715+ for upside strength.
-Large downside gap to fall to if price looks to create a new low structure in bearish confluence and momentum trading.
- COT report in favour of AUD however, risk off will shift sentiment to immediate bias.

Fundamentals
Aussie is a commodity currency so is highly affected with exports of natural resources, Gold , Oil , Grains, Copper etc.
Victoria lockdown has caused issues for the restart of the border openings
USD outlook affects the progress of strength for Australia.
Coronavirus within the US sees an affect on the economy for the US as a result affects directly Australia where the index correlates.
USD sees 1Trillion package for stimulus package.
GBP - lacking a trade deal can affect the GBP on the world stage - but positions are being added so this is good for the GBP gaining strength against majors.

Note: Trading is about timing. so even if our stop loss gets hit on the chart. We may not have entered all together and orders can be adjusted.
Trade what you see, this is purely our Bias.

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