GBPCAD Analysis - Bearish - Trade 06

2024年12月4日

GBPCAD Analysis Overview

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1. Seasonality

GBP: Seasonality indicates a **sell** signal for GBP in the first week of December.

CAD: Seasonality suggests a **strong buy** signal for CAD.

Seasonality Bias: Sell GBPCAD

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2. COT Report

GBP:

COT RSI: 52 weeks at 30%, 26 and 13 weeks at bottom.
COT Index: 3-year at 50%, 1-year at 30%, indicating weak positioning for GBP.
Net Non-Commercial: Decreasing, showing a bearish sentiment.

CAD:

COT RSI: 52, 26, and 13 weeks at 20% and increasing, showing bullish momentum.
COT Index: 3-year and 1-year at 20% and increasing, aligning with a buy sentiment.
Net Non-Commercial: Increasing, with a positive bias.

COT Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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3. Fundamental Analysis

Leading Economic Indicators:

GBP: Decreasing, signaling economic weakness.
CAD: Increasing, pointing to economic strength.

Endogenous Factors:

GBP: Decreasing, aligning with a sell sentiment.
CAD: Increasing, further supporting a buy stance.

Exogenous Factors:

GBPCAD exogenous signal indicates a buy CAD, sell GBP sentiment.

Fundamental Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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4. Technical Analysis

RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence identified, indicating potential downside movement.

Breakout Indicator: A red arrow confirms bearish momentum on key breakout levels.

Resistance Zone: Price is currently at a strong resistance zone, showing rejection patterns.

Technical Bias: Sell GBPCAD.

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Final Bias: Sell GBPCAD

The alignment across seasonality, COT data, fundamental indicators, and technical analysis strongly supports a sell setup for GBPCAD.

2024年12月8日

交易結束：達到停損點