Possible S/T Bounce Against M/T Bears | $GBP $JPY #forex
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Friends,
Watch for a possible M15 level bounce to levels defined by predictive/forecasting model as:
1 - TG-1 - 181.397 - 08 JAN 2015
2 - TG-2 - 182.263 - 08 JAN 2015
3 - TG-Hi - 183.026 - 08 JAN 2015
4 - TG-x - 183.651 - 08 JAN 2015
A fifth target is defined as:
TG-Lo - 180.019 - 08 JAN 2015
This TG-Lo would in fact act as a possible springboard IF and only IF it held against any further bearish advance - In effect, this would act as the signal line for any potential BULLISH adverse excursion.
INSTITUTIONAL POSITION - BEARISH:
I would qualify any rallying as an adverse excursive event on the basis that a single bank has pronounced a bearish bias with an abysmal bearish target.
I believe that some SL hunting might take place before any such descent.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The predictive/forecasting model defined the aforementioned target with the condition also defined above.
However, I have posted dashed arrows not to define any timing, but instead to define the breadth of price action that could possibly occur in this timeframe.
Whereas TG-x has acted as a lowest-probability level, here, any bullish advance would likely stop at TG-Hi = 183.026.
BASIC PATTERN:
A simple channel quartered to highlight price action suggests that price has rising to the 4th quarter, and dwelled there for most of the time. Look for a sustain residence therein as we wait for the forecast to unfold.
A reversal at TG-Lo would perhaps inspire the pattern trader to decipher a Kiss-of-Death ("KoD"), sending price our lofty ways.
OVERALL:
Overall, a pure predictive/forecasting model-based analysis is generating this chart. A single institution is sitting on a bearish position, while fundamentals are bearish for both GBP and JPY. This makes this trade a highly speculative proposition with little technical or fundamental elements on which to secure a directional bias - in essence, this is all generated by the predictive model, so beware.
Directional indicator is left at "Neutral".
Stay tuned,
David Alcindor Predictive Analysis & Forecasting Denver, Colorado - USA