GBPNZD Still undervalued: 2.500 target | Fundamentals Rock!

OANDA:GBPNZD   英鎊 / 紐元
GBPNZD still remains an undervalued currency pair.

GBPNZD is still a good pair to trade given the valuation differentials of the two currencies. NZD wants to fall and GBP is is undervalued.

The pair still remain is the MOST undervalued pair relative to the major pairs and the GBP trade-weighted value.

It is worth about 2.50ish or so, fundamentally. It still is a good "buy-and-hold" trade for me.

評論: Continuing on i the GBP "April Seasonality" theme, I have identified GBPNZD as a good candidate to buy, albeit high beta and riskier than GBPUSD; however, it is still the most undervalued pair among the G7.

It has fallen a whopping 284 pips since the beginning of April 2018, being confined in a retracement channel. However, things have changed. GBPNZD has broken free of this downward fall and has given me some clues that I should become a buyer once again. I look forward to at least a 400 to 600 pip rally in GBPNZD going forward from April 15 to Aril 30th (the latter half of the month).

(1) Tweezer Bottom and Engulfin candles are one sign.
(2) Barclays bank mentioned similar things to my own analysis, which I find amusing and encouraging:
(a) "low sensitivity in the cross to risk sentiment"
(b) "he positive seasonality for the GBP in April"
(c) The GBP has not had a down month in April in the past 10 years with an average gain of 2.2% against the USD.
(d) "UK political uncertainty is continuing to fade, with our latest Brexit Investor Survey suggesting that investor sentiment has improved significantly following the developments leading up to the March EU Summit"
(e) While our expectations for UK inflation. retail sales and wages this week are broadly in line with consensus, momentum is positive for GBP and we think further gains are likely.
(f) "UK-EU informal negotiations may generate some noise for GBP markets and present risk to the trade, however.

In New Zealand. we see the possibility of a weak inflation print this week, given soft pricing intentions and business confidence in the latest Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion"

Well, this is what I have been writing about already beforehand.
Regards to Eamon @ Forexlive (!/trade-recommendation-barclays-long-gbpnzd-entry-target-and-stop-loss-levels-20180415)

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