GBPUSD - Adjusted Wave Count

2016年1月3日

GBPUSD, 3rd January 2016

Last post on this pair I suggested it was near completion - 'almost' … turned out to be a bit more 'almost' than I thought.

I also mentioned I wasn’t wholly happy about the count – one thing I wasn't really sure of is that what I had labelled (i), appeared to be only one wave, not a clear 3 part a-b-c.

I've changed the main wave count to accommodate that, moving wave a, circled back one wave – a perfectly plausible zigzag, wave (c) ~1.618 of (a) ...

Then back up with a clear b wave, circled and then goes on to produce a five wave c wave …

The +'s about this count …

1. Especially wave (iv) looks wave four-ish, triangular … (whether we get another up and down for wave (v) because this most recent wave down looks like a five wave impulse wave … so I've pencilled in a possible move up, meets price / channel resistance then down once more)

2. I quite like this count because the whole corrective a-b-c down resembles an expanded flat along the channel I've marked 1, although wave c, circled is looking a bit long. It passed the 1.618 equivalency at about 1.48477, (fibs marked maroon) though well within approximation.

3. Looking at channel 2, line 1 there are 3 prior bounces off the lower portion, so this might be a good place for a reversal. On the downside I don't see any divergence in the relative strength UNLESS you look at the longer term divergence as indicated. I think I would prefer to see more obvious divergence.

This is not the only count I can see .. too much to put here, and one that better accomodates the 1.618 eqivalency, and means it can go lower still …

If it breaks out the top of channel 2 meaningfully it most likely changed trend.
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I would also wish everyone in this community a very prosperous and profitable year in 2016.